AMOC Collapse Could Lead to Severe Winter Extremes in Europe Despite Global Warming

New research published in Geophysical Research Letters finds that if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—a crucial system of ocean currents—collapses, northern Europe could experience drastically colder winters, even in a globally warmer world. Using climate simulations, researchers examined how the combined effects of global warming and an AMOC shutdown would reshape European climate.

Under a scenario where global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels (RCP4.5), an AMOC collapse would overpower warming effects in parts of Europe. Winter temperatures in cities like London and Oslo could plunge to -20°C and -48°C respectively, due to disrupted heat transport and expanded sea ice coverage. Such extremes are the result of “super-additive effects,” meaning the cooling impact exceeds the sum of individual factors.

In a world warmed by 4°C, the cooling influence of an AMOC collapse would be less dominant, and Europe would still warm—though less than the global average. The study emphasizes that these outcomes apply to centuries after a hypothetical collapse, not the immediate future.

Researchers highlight the societal unpreparedness for such dramatic cold extremes, warning that Europe's infrastructure is not built for Arctic-like winters. The findings call for policymakers to consider compound risks—like warming and circulation collapse together—in climate planning, and to invest more in monitoring ocean systems to reduce uncertainty about tipping points.

2025 / 06
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New Food and Agriculture Policies to Take Effect on January 1, 2025

According to announcements from the Ministry of Health and Welfare (FDA), Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Environment, four new regulations related to food and agriculture will come into effect on January 1, 2025. These include updates to infant formula labeling, strengthened rice production initiatives, revised drinking water standards, and the introduction of carbon fees. Meanwhile, restrictions on cadmium content in chocolate, initially scheduled for 2025, have been postponed to 2026.

Here’s a summary of the new policies:

  1. Carbon Pricing Era Begins: Carbon Fees Due as Early as May 2025
    The Ministry of Environment officially launches Taiwan's carbon pricing system, requiring entities to begin paying carbon fees in May 2025.

  2. New PFAS Standards for Drinking Water Quality
    The Ministry of Environment introduces regulations for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water to ensure safety and quality.

  3. Infant Formula Labeling Revision
    The FDA mandates the inclusion of precautionary statements on infant formula labels and prohibits text or images that idealize the product.

  4. Strengthened Rice Policy: “1-Collect, 2-Transition, 3-Add”
    The Ministry of Agriculture enhances support for rice production with subsidies, crop rotation incentives, and insurance increases for organic farming.

  5. Cadmium Limits for Chocolate Delayed to 2026
    Restrictions on cadmium content in chocolate, originally set for 2025, have been postponed to January 1, 2026.

These policies reflect a commitment to sustainability, food safety, and balanced agricultural development. Stakeholders are encouraged to prepare for the upcoming changes.

2024 / 12
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