As the world moves toward 2050 net-zero emissions, "energy transition" is the most critical core component. However, the real challenge lies not only in increasing the "total volume" of renewable energy but also in how to achieve "24/7" stable supply, known as "CFE" (Carbon-Free Electricity).
For Taiwan, which is highly dependent on a stable power grid, especially for its high-tech industries like semiconductors, this challenge is even more severe. A recent "System-Level Impact Report on 24/7 Carbon-Free Electricity in Taiwan" provides specific data simulations to explore the feasibility of Taiwan achieving a high proportion of CFE by 2030.
Report Core: Can CFE80 Be Achieved in a Nuclear-Free Scenario?
The focus of this report is to simulate whether Taiwan, under a "nuclear-free scenario" and relying solely on renewable energy (such as solar PV, offshore wind, geothermal) and energy storage systems, can achieve the "CFE80" target by 2030.
What is CFE80? CFE80 means that for 80% of every hour of electricity load demand throughout the year, the supply is met by carbon-free green electricity.
Key Finding 1: Wind-Solar Complementarity is the Cornerstone of Stability Many worry about the intermittency of renewable energy, but the report's simulation shows that the "complementary benefits" between different green energy sources are key to achieving a high proportion of CFE.
-Solar Power by Day: Solar PV provides strong power output during the day.
-Wind Power at Night and in Winter: Offshore wind power generation is often stronger at night and during the autumn and winter seasons.
By complementing the generation characteristics of these two main green energy sources and coordinating with energy storage systems, Taiwan has the potential to maintain a stable supply of green electricity most of the time.
Key Finding 2: Electricity Price Costs Are Not as High as Imagined Cost is the public's primary concern when promoting energy transition. The report's simulation results indicate that even in an aggressive scenario pursuing CFE80, the electricity price costs are not as high as external parties fear. This finding helps dispel the myth that "green energy inevitably leads to sky-high electricity bills," providing a more optimistic cost-benefit analysis for policymaking.
Key Finding 3: The Final Mile Toward 100% Moving from CFE80 to CFE100 (100% 24/7 carbon-free electricity) will significantly increase the challenge. The report points out that this last 20% will need to rely on emerging "net-zero thermal technologies" to be filled.
These technologies include: Hydrogen power generation, Ammonia power generation, and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
This also means that while developing renewable energy, Taiwan must simultaneously accelerate investment in the R&D and commercialization of these forward-looking technologies to have a chance at achieving the 2050 net-zero goal.
A Key Step from "Whether" to "How"
The importance of this report lies in shifting Taiwan's net-zero transition discussion from the past question of "Is it feasible?" to the concrete implementation level of "How should we plan it?" The research confirms that in a nuclear-free scenario, relying on a diverse mix of renewable energy and storage configurations, Taiwan has the ability to significantly increase its proportion of carbon-free electricity while balancing supply stability and industrial demand. This undoubtedly provides a clearer and data-supported confidence for Taiwan's net-zero roadmap.
Source: Taiwan Science Media Centre
Image Source: Business Today (Taiwan)
Website: 「臺灣全時無碳電力的系統級影響報告」專家意見 - 台灣科技媒體中心 (smctw.tw)
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