While Sweden, the UK, Denmark, France, and Germany have all pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045 or 2050, Germany’s gradual nuclear phase-out—spurred by the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan—has not only hindered its ability to reach net-zero goals but also triggered skyrocketing electricity prices, slowed economic growth, and increased reliance on energy imports from Russia and the United States.
Net-Zero by 2050 in Jeopardy? Europe’s Decarbonization Progress Slows Dramatically
In March this year, UK Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch announced the UK would abandon its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. She stated that reaching net zero by 2050 is unfeasible “unless we accept plummeting living standards or bankruptcy.” She added that current policies are failing to meet targets while driving up energy costs: “We’re paying too much and achieving too little.”
The UK is not alone. A January 2025 report by the think tank Agora Energiewende revealed that Germany—Europe’s largest economy—reduced carbon emissions by only 3% in 2024, a significant drop from the 10% reduction in 2023. Similarly, EU-wide emissions fell just 3.8% in 2024, compared to 8% the previous year. Germany’s 3% decrease was largely attributed to economic stagnation and a mild winter reducing heating demand—while industrial emissions actually increased by 2%.
After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany began phasing out its nuclear reactors, with the last three reactors shutting down in April 2023. In 2011, Germany had 17 reactors providing over 33% of its total electricity. These were replaced by coal and natural gas, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions from the renewed use of fossil fuels.
According to consulting firm PwC, if Germany had continued operating its nuclear power plants, 94% of its electricity generation in 2024 would be zero-carbon, instead of the current 61% (from renewables). With 39% of electricity still coming from fossil fuels, nuclear energy could have played a critical role in reaching net-zero.
High Electricity Prices Crushing Heavy Industry – Germany’s Economic Model in Crisis After Nuclear Exit
PwC also highlighted that shutting down nuclear plants led directly to increased electricity prices. In a February interview with The Times, then Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck admitted Germany’s economic model was under threat, blaming misplaced trust in outdated technologies and flawed geopolitical assumptions.
The Times noted that after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Germany had to abruptly stop relying on Russian gas while also closing its last nuclear plants, causing energy costs to surge. The future of German energy even became one of the most controversial topics in the country’s February 2025 parliamentary elections.
Due to EU sanctions on Russia, Germany turned to third-party LNG imports to avoid an energy crisis. Although prices have since fallen, they remain one-third higher than pre-war levels, making Germany one of the most expensive electricity markets in Europe. Energy-intensive industries—such as chemicals, metals, and automotive manufacturing—have seen domestic output drop by 20%.
This underscores Germany’s urgent need for affordable energy. PwC estimates that had nuclear plants remained operational, average electricity prices in 2024 would have been 23% lower. Rising energy costs have deepened the economic downturn, reducing consumer purchasing power and industrial competitiveness. The current energy transition strategy is also projected to increase electricity system costs over the next 20 years, burdening consumers with higher utility bills or taxes. During times of insufficient renewable supply, Germany has had to rely on imported electricity or fossil fuels, with electricity prices sometimes exceeding €500 per MWh.
As Europe’s largest economy and a key driver of EU prosperity, Germany’s economic performance is crucial. In May, Economy Minister Christian Lindner told the Financial Times that Germany’s growth is essential to Europe’s recovery. However, the rise in energy costs—exacerbated by the nuclear phase-out and the Russia–Ukraine war—has increased export burdens for German companies and placed heavy industry at risk.
Is Energy Transition Built on Imports? Europe Risks Repeating Its Dependence on Russian Gas
PwC also warned that Germany’s return to fossil fuels has increased its dependence on foreign energy sources. In January, Robert Habeck cautioned that the war in Ukraine has led Europe to rely heavily on more expensive U.S. LNG, raising the risk of repeating past mistakes by replacing one dependency (on Russia) with another (on the U.S.). “Energy supply chains have once again become tools of geopolitical power,” he said.
The Financial Times further noted that tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% imposed by the U.S. under President Donald Trump on electric components and battery storage equipment from Europe and other regions have seriously disrupted renewable energy industries. These tariffs have driven up prices, strained supply chains, and eroded investor confidence in renewables. As a result, the pace of the energy transition has slowed, and renewable energy sources are struggling to support the entire power grid alone.
Source: https://udn.com/news/story/124068/8854466
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