Study: Global "War-Related Carbon Emissions" Shockingly Second Only to the U.S., China, and India, with Post-War Reconstruction Likely to Be Even Higher
As the global climate crisis worsens, the environmental impact of wars is gaining international attention. Recent studies show that military conflicts not only bring humanitarian disasters but also generate staggering amounts of carbon emissions, exacerbating global warming. The research points out that military activities are estimated to account for 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If global military activities were considered a country, their emissions would rank fourth in the world, behind only the United States, China, and India.
However, due to the military's culture of secrecy and gaps in international climate agreements, these emission data have long been ignored. Only a few countries have submitted incomplete military emissions reports to the United Nations, making it difficult to accurately estimate the carbon emissions caused by war.
Significant Carbon Emissions from War
Recent studies on the two major military conflicts in recent years— the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict— reveal the immense impact of war on the climate.
According to EuroNews, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 until the war's third anniversary in February 2025, the conflict will have produced nearly 2.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions, roughly equivalent to the total annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
As for Israel's military actions in Gaza, the latest research shows that in the first 15 months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, over 310,000 tons of CO2 equivalent were emitted as long-term climate costs, surpassing the total greenhouse gas emissions of Costa Rica and Estonia in 2023.
Arms Transport Becomes the Largest Carbon Emission Source in the Israel-Hamas Conflict
The Guardian reports that an analysis by a UK-US research team revealed that the greenhouse gas emissions generated by Israel's Gaza war in the first 120 days exceeded the annual emissions of 26 countries most vulnerable to climate change, including Vanuatu and Greenland. Of the estimated 652,552 tons of CO2 equivalent, more than 99% was linked to Israel's aerial bombings and ground invasions. This study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
It is worth noting that Hamas's rockets fired at Israel between October 2023 and February 2024 only produced around 1,140 tons of CO2 equivalent, and the fuel stored by the group prior to October 7th resulted in another 2,700 tons of CO2 equivalent. Hamas's carbon footprint in the first 120 days was equivalent to the annual energy use of 454 American households.
The study also found that nearly 30% of CO2 equivalent emissions in the first 120 days of the Israel-Hamas war came from 244 US cargo planes transporting bombs, ammunition, and other military supplies to Israel.
Another analysis, which included carbon emissions from the first 15 months of the Israel-Hamas war, also noted that the 50,000 tons of weapons and military supplies sent by the U.S. to Israel accounted for nearly 30% of the total emissions, primarily through airlift and maritime transport from European stockpiles.
Another 20% of the carbon emissions in the Israel-Hamas war were attributed to Israeli aircraft's reconnaissance and bombing missions, fuel for tanks and other military vehicles, as well as the manufacturing and detonation of bombs and artillery shells.
Moreover, regional tensions sparked by the war also led to significant carbon emissions. The Guardian pointed out that the analysis shows that from October 2023 to January 2025, the Houthi group in Yemen fired about 400 rockets at Israel, emitting approximately 55 tons of CO2 equivalent. Israel's aerial responses generated nearly 50 times that amount.
In sporadic clashes between Israel and Lebanon, out of the 3,747 tons of CO2 equivalent produced, over 90% came from Israeli Defense Forces' bombs, while only 8% came from Hezbollah's rockets.
Russia-Ukraine War: Carbon Emissions Continue to Climb Over Three Years
Environmental think tank Earth Org reports that by February 2025, as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year, it will have produced over 2.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions. In the 12 months from February 2024 to February 2025, emissions grew by 31%, which is equivalent to the total annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, or the annual emissions from 120 million fuel-powered vehicles.
The report also notes that the war has become Ukraine's largest source of carbon emissions. The research team attributes the surge in carbon emissions primarily to war activities, including fuel-driven tanks, fortifications, and the production and use of ammunition, explosives, and military equipment.
Although drones became a symbol of military power in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024, the impact of artillery shells on the climate remained significant throughout the year.
On the other hand, emissions from military activities have steadily increased over the past 12 months, with vehicles that burn fossil fuels, such as tanks and fighter jets, being the main consumers of diesel and kerosene, accounting for 74 million tons of CO2 equivalent—surpassing emissions from another major source of carbon emissions in war: the climate costs of rebuilding damaged buildings and infrastructure.
Wildfires Become Ukraine’s Third-Largest Source of Carbon Emissions
Additionally, EuroNews cites research from the "Conflict-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment Guidelines," which notes that wildfires ravaged Ukraine in 2024, becoming the third-largest source of carbon emissions in the country for the year. A total of 92,100 hectares of land were burned in wildfires, more than twice the average of the previous two years.
The wildfires caused a further doubling of carbon emissions, reaching 25.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a 118% increase compared to the annual average emissions during wartime in previous years.
Lennard de Klerk, the primary author of the report, explains that ignition sources during the war included artillery fire, ammunition launches, drone crashes, mine explosions, and soldiers' campfires. Due to ongoing hostilities and landmines, firefighters were unable to reach the areas, so initial fires grew larger and fiercer until all the fuel (trees and shrubs) was consumed.
On the other hand, targeted attacks on energy infrastructure during the Russia-Ukraine war also led to a 16% increase in carbon emissions. Oil infrastructure was especially hard hit, with carbon emissions surging to 2.1 million tons of CO2 equivalent from 2024 to 2025, up from 1.1 million tons in the 24 months prior to the Russia-Ukraine war.
The research team uses a "social cost of carbon" calculation of $185 per ton of CO2 equivalent and believes that Russia should bear more than $42 billion in responsibility after three years of war.
War's Carbon Emissions Are Hard to Accurately Estimate, and "Reconstruction" Will Be the Largest Source
In fact, whether in Gaza or Ukraine, post-war reconstruction will become the largest source of war-related carbon emissions.
The study on carbon emissions from the Israel-Hamas war estimates that rebuilding Gaza will require clearing rubble and reconstructing 436,000 apartments, 700 schools, mosques, clinics, government offices, and other buildings, as well as 5 kilometers of Gaza's roads. This will produce around 29.4 million tons of CO2 equivalent, roughly equivalent to Afghanistan's total annual emissions in 2023, far exceeding the emissions generated by the direct military activities of the war so far.
The Guardian pointed out that according to the study, the carbon cost of rebuilding 3,600 destroyed homes in southern Lebanon will be nearly equivalent to the annual emissions of Saint Lucia Island.
Earth Org also noted that the carbon cost of rebuilding Ukraine's damaged buildings and infrastructure will account for 27% of the total emissions, second only to the emissions from military activities themselves.
The Guardian also mentioned that due to media blockades in Israel and Russia, and military secrecy culture and gaps in international climate agreements, these emissions data have long been ignored. Only a few countries have submitted incomplete military emissions reports to the United Nations, making it difficult to accurately estimate the carbon emissions caused by war. The true environmental cost is almost certainly much higher.
International Accountability Mechanisms
The Guardian reported that the United Nations General Assembly has stated that Russia should compensate Ukraine for the war, prompting the European Commission to establish a damage registry, which will include climate emissions. Lennard de Klerk, the lead author of the "Conflict-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment Guidelines," stated that frozen Russian assets should be used to cover these costs.
Linsey Cottrell, environmental policy officer at the Conflict and Environment Observatory, pointed out that "the new monetary estimates for climate damage highlight the importance of accounting for conflict-related greenhouse gas emissions. We urgently need an international agreement to measure and address the issue of military emissions."
Regarding the Israel-Hamas war, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment Astrid Puentes said, "This updated study demonstrates the urgency of stopping the escalating atrocities and ensuring that Israel and all countries comply with international law, including decisions from the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice. Regardless of whether countries agree to call it genocide, the situation we are facing is severely impacting all lives in Gaza and is threatening human rights in the region and even globally due to worsening climate change."
Hadeel Ikhmais, Director of the Climate Change Office at the Palestinian Environment Quality Authority, stated, "War not only kills humans, but it also releases toxic chemicals, destroys infrastructure, contaminates soil, air, and water resources, and accelerates climate and environmental disasters. War also undermines climate adaptation and hinders environmental management. Ignoring carbon emissions is a black hole in accountability, allowing governments to escape environmental crimes."
Ben Neimark, a lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, stated, "The military needs to recognize a fact: due to the climate change they themselves have caused, their own national security and operational capacity are being harmed."
Source: 研究：全球「戰爭碳排放量」驚人僅次於美中印，戰後重建恐更高 - TNL The News Lens 關鍵評論網
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